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RisksandchallengesoftheEUexpansion
(Zhou,Dayong)
I.Introduction
ForseveralyearsnowtheEuropeanUnionisdiscussingapossibleenlargement,becauseseveralEuropeancountrieshaveappliedformembershipintheEU.TheseareespeciallytheformersocialistcountriesinEasternEurope,thathaveclearlyturnedtowardsthewestsincethecollapseoftheironcurtain.ThesecountriesareBulgaria,theBalticcountriesLatvia,LithuaniaandEstonia,Poland,Romania,theSlovakRepublic,theCzechRepublic,SloveniaandHungary.
InadditionTurkey,CyprusandMaltaaretryingforquitesometimealreadytojointheEU.TheseapplicationarenottobeacceptedwithoutanyfurtherdeliberationbecausetheydobringalongsomerisksandtheconsequencesarehardtodistinguishthereforethesecountriesarenotveryexpectedjoiningtheEuropeanUnioninthenearfutureandwillthereforenotbeincludedinthefollowingevaluation.
II.Risksandchallenges
IfwewantstoevaluatetherisksandchallengesofanupcomingenlargementoftheEU,weshouldfirsttakeintoaccountexperiencesgainedduringpreviousexpansionwhichweretosomeextentcomparable.Herethesouthernexpansionfrom1986shouldbementionedwheretwoeconomicallypatheticcountriessoughtadmissiontothethenEuropeanCommunity.Theadmissionprocedureofthesetwocandidates,beingSpainandPortugal,werelengthyandconsideredveryproblembearing.Especiallytheamountofproducethatwouldaddtothealreadyexistingagriculturalover-productionoftheCommunitywasseentobeaproblemsinceitwouldincreasetheloadontheEuropeanbudget.
ButseenfromaglobaleconomicalperspectivethejoiningofSpainandPortugalwasoverallpositivefortheECandthetwocountries,althoughSpainstruggledwithafurtherriseofunemploymentanddisparitieswithintheCommunitywerefurtheramplified.
ThedisparitieswithintheUnionwillmostcertainlyincreasewhenitcomestoaneasternexpansion,buttheagriculturalproblemwillnotbeanissue,becausethecandidateshavenotgottheirfocusonagriculture,alreadybecauseoftheircommunistheritagewhichfocusedonindustryratherthanonagricultureorthetertiarysector.
IncaseoftheapproachingexpansiontowardsEasternEuropetheUnionwillhavetoresolveseveralproblems,themostseverebeingwithoutanydoubtthefinancialonethatwillgoalongwiththeextension,estimatedtobe�5-�6billionannually,justforthetechnologicallyunderdevelopedagricultureinthenewmemberstates.
Thefinancialproblemwillalsoleadtoatemporarydiscontentamongthepopulationoftheexistingmembers,sincethefinancialloadonthecountrieswillcausebudgetcutsbecausethenewmemberswillundoubtedlybelongtothepayeesratherthanthepayers.EspeciallytheMediterraneanmembers,forinstanceItaly,Spainetc.fearcutsintheirsubsidiesparticularlytheagriculturalones,andagricultureisalreadymakingupthebiggestpartoftheEU′sbudget.
Ofcourseitisalsotobequestionedwhetherwiththejoiningofeconomicallyweakcountriestheeconomiesoftherichermembersarenotweakened.
Whatshouldbetakenintoconsiderationaswellistheimpactthejoiningwillhaveonthepopulationofthecandidates,especiallyconsideringtherightstheywillgainwhentheyarecitizensoftheEuropeancommunity.Theydothenhavetherighttosettleandworkanywherewithinthecommunity,thiscouldleadtoalargeamountofpeoplepouringintotheoldmembercountriestryingtoseekworkthereandmaketheirliving.AndsincemostoftheEuropeancountriesarealreadystrugglingwithhighunemploymentthehighratescouldbepushedupfurtherandthediscontentamongthepopulationcouldworsen,especiallyagainstthebackgroundofNeo-NazisinGermanyandothercountriessuchasBritainorItaly.Offcoursethiswouldonlybeatemporaryproblem,whichwouldsolveitselfovertimeasthenewmembersdevelopeconomically,butstillthiscouldprovetobeamajorissue.
Ofcoursetheircomesalsoaminorproblemalongwiththeexpansion,thisproblembeingevenmorelanguagesthanthetwelve,alreadybeingused,inwhichEUcommunicationswouldhavetobecarriedoutaddingtothealreadyhugeadministrativebodyoftheEuropeanUnionandalsocausingfurthercostsoftheEU.
Butbecausetheexpansionrepresentsapoliticalnecessityoneshouldalsotakeintoaccountthepositiveaspectscausedbysuchahistoricevent.WiththeexpansionthecontinentwouldtakeahugesteptowardstheethnicintegrationwithinEurope,differentcultureswouldbefacingeachotherandcouldalsoprofitfromeachother.AlsotheglobalcompetitivenessoftheEUagainsttheUSAandAsiawouldimproveandanothersteptowardsglobalpeacewouldbeundertaken.
III.Changesinadministration
Itisobviousthatanexpansionpotentiallyincludingtencountrieswouldnotbefeasiblewithoutfundamentalinstitutionalreforms.
ForinstancewiththeexistingstructureoftheUnionwhichallocatesmostofthepowertotheEuropeanCouncil,whereeachmemberstatehasonevote,itwouldbeimaginablethatsmallermemberswouldhaveamajorityoverthelargermembers.ExceptforPoland,whichisbypopulationcomparabletoSpainandwouldconsequentlybealargemember,allothercandidatesarerelativelysmallinsizeanpopulation.
Anotherpointisthatwithmorethantwentymembersthedecisionfindingandmakingprocessneedstobecompletelyreconsidered,soitrepresentstheactualsizeofthemembercountriesintermsofpopulationratherthangivingeachmemberavetoandespeciallyonesinglevote.Theexistingvotingandweightingsystemisalsoalreadymakingthedecisionfindingprocessapainfullyandlengthyone,anothertendifferentopinionsaddedtothiswouldmakeitvirtuallyimpossibletocometoanagreementthatatleastpartiallysatisfiesallmembersandisthereforebeingsupportedandnotvetoedagainst.
AchangedlegislaturewouldalsokeepthedemocraticthoughtthattheentireEUisbasedonaliveandnotvanishitliketheexistingsystem.
WhatshouldalsobepointedoutisthefactthatanincreaseinmemberscouldleadtonewcoalitionswithintheUnionandalsoincreasecompetitionamongtheindividualcountries.ThereareevencriticsthatfearthataneasternexpansioncouldleadtoashiftinpowertowardsthereunifiedGermany,sincethepotentialnewmembersarealreadyheavilyboundandleaningtowardsGermany.
WhatshouldalsobeconsideredisachangeinEuropeanagriculturalpolicy,whichshouldactuallybereformedalready.Thesystemofmilkquotas,subsidiesetc.whichsubsidisesanover-productioninmanyareas,justnottoinfuriatethefarmers,becausesmallerfarmswouldnotbeabletosurvivewithoutthesubsidiesandtheentirefaceoftheEuropeanprimarysectorwouldchangeiscomplet [1] [2] 下一页
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